By Abdullah Adeyanju Binuyo
Bad leaders do not just fall from heaven, they are elected by citizens who do not vote. Such people have simply lost the right to complain!
With over 200million Nigerians hovering around the edge of an economic cliff, surviving on a bare minimum due to recent leadership decision of weaponising currency for political gains. It simply teaches us one lesson in the choice of a leader. Leadership should not just be an aspiration, instead, it should be a consequence of competence.
This, therefore brings forth the question. Who should you vote for to be President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on Saturday, 25 February, 2023? As you go to vote, ask yourself, what kind of person do we need to lead us through these troubled times? Let your head lead your emotions when casting your vote. It is a combination of an emotional and intellectual decision.
Think about the very serious challenges facing our world and our country. Our economy is experiencing difficulty. Rising interest rates and inflation around the world make even basic foodstuffs like garri too expensive for the average people. They make it virtually impossible to borrow or pay back loans. Nigeria got no windfall benefit from post COVID 19 pandemic oil price boom. In fact in one way or another we have been living with austerity for most of the Buhari administration. The war in Ukraine has added its own misery to our suffering. The exodus of Generation Japa started out as trickle as this administration took power in 2015 and has became a flood as the economy worsened. Technically qualified Nigerians with their families rank among the top 3 countries granted student visas to the United Kingdom. Our urban youth started voting with their feet long before they got PVCs for this election.
Who then can lead us out of this economic adversity?
If we are honest with ourselves, all three leading candidates have risen to the governance challenges of their time. Among former Governor Peter Obi’s touted successes are the educational achievements in Anambra state which were attributed to his policies.
While much fanfare has been made about his frugality, financial prudence investing state money and savings, the current Governor of Anambra state, Professor Charles Soludo (himself a former Central Bank Governor) has raised issues contesting the nature and value of those achievements.
Former Vice President Atiku had a ring side seat as the Obasanjo administration privatised state assets and liberalised the economy, leading to a turbo charged 15% growth in GDP in 2002, a remarkable feat that has not been matched since. As the officer responsible for economic policy, the former Vice President shares much of the credit. Among Vice President Atiku’s other touted achievements is strengthening transparency through the creation of ‘due process’ and the Bureau of Public Procurement. Both have demonstrated capacity. But under what type of adversity?
While Governor Obi faced legal and political adversity in the form of court cases and impeachments, and Vice President Atiku ended up in legal battles and political wars with President Obasanjo, neither can claim that the federal government posed an existential economic and constitutional threat to their state in the way the Governor Tinubu administration in Lagos State experienced.
And while both personally triumphed in their personal political struggles it remains to be seen if the legacy of their triumph extended to their states.
Perhaps the more benign enabler of performance for both former Governor Obi and former Vice President Atiku respectively is that they governed during 8 years of relative ‘fat’ with high oil prices and government revenue surpluses. Some of these surpluses ended up in the Excess Crude Account, which by 2007 exceeded $37 billion. In short, times were good when they were last in power.
In these good years of fat, Lagos state was financially marooned as federal allocation of funds to local governments were withheld for several years. Other punitive measures, both financial and non-financial, were directed at Lagos state to the point where the Federal government had more court cases against Lagos state than all other states combined. The more adversarial the federal government became, the more innovative Lagos state became. A time of plenty for most states, including 13% derivation from the onshore-offshore case for oil producing states, was a time of adversity for Lagos. Lagos state under Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu became a lean and agile government with a policy entrepreneurial instinct. Its small land mass and its diverse population were its riches. No other Presidential candidate’s leadership was forged under such adverse conditions. No other Presidential candidate has experienced that level of governance hardship. No other candidate’s presidential credentials could be more tailor-made for these times.
Much has been said of how Asiwaju improved Lagos’s internally generated revenue. Much less has been said of how improved the delivery of governing services. Security in the state when Asiwaju took office was dire. It was not uncommon to see festering corpses on the streets of Lagos in 1999. It was not uncommon to wait years to receive governor’s consent on property transactions. Court cases often took years, even decades. The reforms he instituted were comprehensive. Technology was introduced into the courts as well as in government, as were innovative informal dispute resolution mechanisms. Ghost workers were purged as service conditions were improved for civil servants and judiciary. The Tax system was streamlined. All of these achievements were made while the Federal government was tying one of the state’s financial and constitutional arms behind her back.
The difficult conditions under which Lagos state operated then mirror our experiences throughout Nigeria today. We all feel nervous as a result of insecurity. Lagosians did so then. Asiwaju surged resources and equipment to police, creating a rapid response service to the police. We are all exhausted from exercising patience in the hope of improvement. We are all frustrated as government does not seem to present in our lives. Asiwaju brought government to the people in Lagos. Administration officials had name tags on them so people would know who they were. Even their phone numbers were published in newspapers so they could be reached by ordinary Lagosians.
Today we spend more money servicing interest on our debt than we make in revenue. Much of that debt was used to finance the petrol subsidy or salaries. Debt used to finance infrastructure, as Lagos did, improves the economy and productivity.
Finally, the currency change or “Naira re-coloration” has added economic insult to injury for Nigerians. The short term impacts of this policy has dislocated the economy and we are all suffering for it.. While both Atiku and Obi are busy either lauding this policy or remaining conspicuously silent, they both know how damaging to the economy weaponising the currency for political ends can be.
We don’t need to go abroad to see the potential long term impacts of such a policy. Just go back to 1984 in Nigeria when then Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari introduced new Naira notes. Up until that currency change in 1984, anyone could take Naira to London or America and change it into Dollars or pounds abroad. Businesses could open Letters of Credit with their banks in Nigeria and not be required to cash back the Letter of Credit with Dollars. Once the decree to change currency came into force, over night the Naira was no longer freely convertible. We have lived with those consequences ever since, making doing business in Nigeria and foreign direct investment into Nigeria more difficult.
The impact of this Naira recoloration may well endure beyond this election. Since it was introduced for political reasons in this election cycle, it will be a source of concern every election going forward. Over time this may erode confidence in the currency as a store of value and medium of exchange. If there is more than one value for the Naira (new notes more valuable than old notes), the prospects of further erosion of trust in the currency are more real than imagined. This is happening in a time of block chain and crypto currency, that present reliable alternative and (under these circumstances) preferrable means of exchange to the Naira for doing business in Nigeria. In Sokoto ( Ilela local Government ) and other border regions transactions are right now being conducted in CFA (Francophone currency). Messing with the currency for political ends effectively undermines the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. To solve this litany of travails and tears, we get to choose between Peter, Abubakar and Bola. Peter and Abubakar speak volumes about situational principles by not speaking truth to power when the need arises in a desperate bid for power. Bola by contrast soldiers on accustomed to such behaviour from Federal government.
While Peter may be the rock and beloved son in whom the late Ikemba Nnewi was well pleased, and while Abubakar may be true to his illustrious namesake- As-siddique, it is the trials, tribulations and leadership of prophet Yusuf in the Qur’an or Joseph in the Bible that reflects the Nigerian condition today, and leadership and endurance qualities required for the president of this time. The very same conditions under which Asiwaju has been prepared for presidential leadership.
After 7 years of growth under Obasanjo, we experience 5 years of record oil prices under YarAdua/Goodluck, until the oil price collapsed in late 2014. We’ve experienced 8 leaner years under Buhari, including the oil price collapse during COVID19, and face even more adversity going forward.
The man with the vision and the management skills to see us through this adversity and lead us to the foothills of the promised economic land is the one that should get your vote. The only one with that record of leadership is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
He gets my vote. Put aside your biases and emotions and look dispassionately at the conditions under which each candidate has achieved the great strides his supporters are claiming. If you do that, you will come to the same inescapable conclusion as I have that the president we need for this time is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He deserves your vote.
